As October baseball is here, the intensity gets dialed up on everything. Just let Joe Buck interject his condescending opinions on the mundane and a potential brain aneurysm may develop and rupture by the 3rd Inning. One aspect of post season baseball which ALWAYS flies under the radar is the value of home runs. We make so much about it nowadays as teams live and die by the long ball. Of course, they are exciting and are the fastest way to score runs. Even the most casual baseball fan can relate to their significance. However, there are a number of factors left out about the home run in regards to winning the World Series….even by today’s stat geek standards. This begs the question, Are Home Runs Meaningless in October? Do they correlate to post season success?
Allow this post to give a boost of confidence to pitchers who are tired of hearing about Launch Angle and all that blather. Quite frankly, I think is just provides a false sense of security to mediocre hitters. If they run into one once every 20 at bats or so, they feel comfortable, accepted. In between, not too many adjustments are being made to produce.
Are Home Runs MEANINGLESS In October???
2018 Yankees
This season’s Yankees set the single season record with 267 home runs. So What? They were knocked out in the ALDS by the rivaled Red Sox. In the 4 game series, both teams hit 4 HRs a piece. The Yankees hit 0 in the last 2 games in the Bronx, while the Red Sox hit 1 in each game. In the Game 3, 16-1 romping, 13 of the 18 Boston hits were singles. Take that launch angle enthusiasts. Their lone home run came in the 9th inning as Yankees backup catcher Austin Romine was on the bump.
Over the course of 162 games, where 11 out of the 19 teams the Yankees faced were under .500, the odds will be in their favor going all in on the long ball. Now, in a short series against good starting pitching, that is a whole different story….As the world just witnessed.
This year’s Yankees were plagued all season by not being able to get the big hit with runners in scoring position. I will get to that in a bit. A serious problem in the regular season becomes catastrophic in October. Clutch Hitting is what all championship teams thrive on for victory. The rest just wonder…
Are Home Runs MEANINGLESS In October???
1998 Yankees
Let’s go back in time 20 years. The summer of ‘98. The baseball world was consumed by Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa chasing and surpassing Roger Maris’s single season home run record of 61. Big Mac hit 70 and Slamming Sammy, 66. Yet neither of them won a playoff game. In the end, the most noteworthy aspect of the sport, was the Yankees won 125 total games that season capped off by a 4 game sweep of the Padres in the World Series.
Despite a different era without defensive shifts, nor an abundance of pitchers pumping 100+, this team had a knack for piling on runs. Especially, in the clutch. The ‘98 Yankees did hit 207 HRs. However, it was their balanced lineup with a multitude of ways to score runs which boasted them a .714 winning percentage. MANUFACTURE. It is not a dirty word stat geeks. It plays. Especially, when everyone in the ball park with a baseball IQ, can see that the home run is not going to show up on a given day. Good pitching has a tendency to put even the most powerful lineups in shutdown mode. It then becomes a collective mental struggle for teams that do not adjust.
Notable Stats
1998 Yankees
114 regular season wins
965 Runs Scored
5.96 runs/game
.288 Team Batting Average
Team leader in home runs, Tino Martinez – 28
4 regulars batted over .300
4 hitters with 97 RBIs or more
Only 2 Players struck out 100 times
Want to know their BAPIP?
WHO GIVES A $%#@*&^%$#!
2018 Yankees
100 Wins
851 Runs Scored
5.25 runs/game
.249 Team Batting Average
Team Leader in Home Runs – Giancarlo Stanton – 38
0 regulars Batted over .300
1 hitter with 97 RBI
5 Players with 100 or more K’s
1 with over 200 K’s
BABIP – Still lower than the 1998 Yankees actual batting average
Once Again, who gives a $%&!#???
More Tale of the Tape
It is interesting how the ’98 Yankees demolish their most current version of the storied franchise in all the so called Dinosaur stats and the modern days trends. However does one team who is out homered by 60 (240 TB) out slug the record setters? Hmmm… Perhaps, a balanced lineup with a dynamic approach? Hard to argue with those who remember the 1998 season. Also, pressure is added to pitchers when having to work with runners on base more often. Funny, how there isn’t a stat for that….
Are Home Runs MEANINGLESS In October???
Clutch Hitting Comparisons
Games that were lost because the big hit never came are a dime a dozen. As for the comparison of the 2 Yankee Teams, one could say the difference is a Baker’s Dozen + 1.
1998
2018
c/o Baseball-Reference.com
Are Home Runs MEANINGLESS In October???
Single Season Leaders in the Postseason
C/O Wikipedia
The graphic here displays the top 18 teams all time with the most homeruns in a season. You will have to go all the way to 13th place for a World Series winner in the 2009 Yankees. Many of these teams atop the list didn’t even make the playoffs, let alone have a winning record. How is that possible? Of the 18 teams listed here, they have a combined winning percentage of .543. Which equates to an 88 win season. There is no guarantee of a postseason berth with that win total. At the bottom of the list, the powerhouse 61’ Yankees of Roger Maris & Mickey Mantle with their 109 wins brought up those totals significantly.
Let’s not forget baseball’s most recent dynasty of the San Francisco Giants’ 3 titles in 5 seasons. In their championship years (2010,12,14) they hit 162, 103, & 132 HRs respectively…and they aren’t alone in that range of teams wearing the BIG rings. Sure, one can say San Francisco has a huge ball park. However, it never affected Barry Bonds breaking all the Home Run records…..with his 0 Rings. Are home runs meaningless?
Are Home Runs MEANINGLESS In October???
Attack Mode for Pitchers
Hitters today have a very Cookie Cutter approach, in which they are looking for one thing throughout the entirety of the at bat, to absolutely murder the baseball. Without making any adjustments based on the count or the situation, this makes hitters extremely predictable. As they have no intent to hit the ball where it is pitched, attack them with your strengths and reap the benefits
…And By The Way…Hitters in every era struggled to hit a well executed Slider. Just too DOMINANT to Launch! One cannot ‘barrel’ what sharply eludes the sweet spot! Therefore, continue to be Aggressive with this weapon.
No doubt the Home run is a game changer. However, lineups loaded with FEAST or FAMINE hitters have no balance. When their FAMINE plagues run production, FEAST on their inadequacy!
Most Home Runs are hit on mistake pitches. Therefore, Neutralize the Launch Angle and STAY OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE, and you can have your way with the ‘Gorilla Launchers’ on any given day. Embrace the challenge that shutting down a powerful lineup is far easier than the Twitter Hitting trolls will have you believe.
Keep Dominating!!!
About the Author
Brad Kirsch is the Owner/Creator of Slider Domination. He is a former professional pitcher who blogs about all things Pitching. Brad has also authored the AudioBook, 7 Reasons Why YOU Should Throw a Slider. If you haven’t done so already, you can Download the AudioBook Here
